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When J.P. Morgan withdrew his funding from Nikola Tesla's Wardenclyffe Tower in 1903, he didn't kill the idea of wireless energy; he simply ensured that it wouldn't be free and that not everyone would have access to it. This is how the world economy, systems, and politics operate. The tower was dismantled, and the patent was buried, returning the vision to those who benefit from scarcity.

Nepal is in a similar position, with abundant water resources and great potential. However, whether this potential leads to sovereignty or dependency hinges on the decisions being made, or avoided, in Kathmandu at this critical juncture.

Nepal's energy ambitions are more ambitious than ever. In January 2025, Nepal endorsed the "Energy Development Roadmap and Action Plan-2081", aiming to generate 28,500 MW of electricity by 2035. The government aims for Nepal to become a regional energy hub, supplying power to India, Bangladesh, and beyond. In October 2025, India and Nepal signed agreements to construct high-capacity 400-kilowatt cross-border transmission lines. International organizations like the ADB, World Bank, AIIB, and EIB pledged $2.32 billion for the Dudhkoshi Storage Hydroelectricity Project in February 2026.

While these are significant accomplishments, there is a fundamental issue that cannot be solved by transmission lines: Nepal is developing an energy economy heavily reliant on a single buyer. The roadmap outlines a plan to mobilize $46.5 billion in the energy sector by 2035, with a focus on exports. The primary question for Nepal's policymakers should not be "How much can we sell?" but rather "Who owns this energy, and who dictates the terms of sale?" It is crucial to consider who the buyers are and how Nepal can have control over the terms.

Sovereignty is not merely a concept but a process that requires deliberate actions. Nepal must work towards establishing sovereignty in its energy sector through careful planning and decision-making.

For years, Nepal has been operating in a challenging environment as a monopsony, with India being its main electricity export market. Nepal's ability to export electricity to India is subject to annual approval, which is discretionary and contingent on project financing, excluding Chinese investments. Nepal has had to navigate this complex relationship with India to secure approvals for electricity exports.

This is not a trade relationship but rather a tribute relationship. Nepal produces the power, but India has the final say on whether and when to purchase it. The price, volume, and timing are all determined by New Delhi's strategic considerations, not Kathmandu's development needs, despite our pride in exports.

To break free from this cycle, Nepal must urgently and structurally diversify its markets. In 2025, Nepal earned $9.43 million by exporting electricity to Bangladesh, marking the first trilateral power trading arrangement in South Asia. While this is a significant milestone, it is just the beginning, not a solution. Access to Bangladesh is dependent on Indian transmission infrastructure, maintaining India's control over Nepal's third-party trade.

True diversification entails investing in cross-border transmission with China to the north, not as a geopolitical move against India, but as a means of leverage, insurance, and the fundamental strategy of any rational trading nation. A Nepal that can sell in multiple directions is a Nepal that cannot be easily influenced by any single neighbor. However, the value of transmission to China has yet to be fully realized.

The most concerning aspect of Nepal's energy situation is not its export volume but its low per capita electricity consumption of just 0.4 MWh per year, one of the lowest in South Asia. Despite producing more electricity than it can sell, Nepal continues to waste surplus power while relying on diesel for factories, lacking mechanization in agriculture, and using gas and firewood for cooking. The lessons from the 2015 blockade have not been learned, and the current global energy crises should serve as a wake-up call for Nepal to reassess its energy sources.

In the Fiscal Year 2023/24, Nepal spent approximately Rs 300.65 billion on petroleum imports, accounting for 19% of the total import bill. The main energy crisis lies in the country's reliance on imported fossil fuels instead of utilizing its domestic clean power sources. Nepal is allocating a significant portion of its import expenditure to purchase energy that could be generated domestically.

The solution to this issue is clear. Implementing an "energy-for-growth" strategy that focuses on electrifying various sectors such as irrigation, cold storage, agro-processing, industrial parks, public transport, and energy-intensive manufacturing could significantly boost Nepal's economy. By harnessing surplus electricity for domestic use, Nepal can shift towards a more modern production-oriented economy.

Despite a high percentage of households having access to electricity in 2023, the actual consumption and adoption of modern energy practices remain limited. Merely being connected to the grid is not enough to alleviate energy poverty; the economy needs to be structured around it. Investments in infrastructure like cold chains and industrialization can transform electricity availability into economic opportunities.

Nepal's unemployment rate stands at around 10–12%, with youth unemployment being a pressing issue. Many young Nepalis seek job opportunities abroad in countries like the Gulf and Malaysia due to limited prospects at home. Remittances from overseas workers now make up over 25% of Nepal's GDP, highlighting the country's reliance on external employment opportunities due to the lack of domestic job prospects.

This is fundamentally a failure in energy and industrialization. When factories cannot operate due to unreliable power, jobs are lost. When agro-processing units cannot function due to high electricity costs, young people seek opportunities abroad. A comprehensive energy strategy could create jobs in construction, operation, manufacturing, and services centered around affordable electricity. Nepal's rivers could help retain its youth if there is political determination.

Energy independence is not just a theoretical idea. It means a young person in Dang can stay with their family, a farmer in Bara can use an electric pump instead of diesel, and a factory in Birgunj can run on electricity instead of imported fuel.

Nepal's biggest challenge is its internal disarray. Despite numerous policy documents and plans, there is no clear roadmap for developing and managing the hydropower sector. Changes in government, ministerial rotations, project delays, licensing disputes, and community protests all hinder progress. The recent suspension of the MarsyangdiBesi Hydropower Project in Lamjung due to protests highlights the consequences of neglecting local consultation.

As exports increase and centralization grows, local opposition has intensified. The halt of the MarsyangdiBesi project underscores the need to view energy as a national resource, not just a government asset. The rivers belong to the people of Nepal, not to any specific city, country, or financial institution.

Nepal's 2015 Constitution mandates equitable profit sharing between the central government and provinces, but the current centralized export strategy is straining this provision. A focus on hydropower development that benefits the federal government while neglecting the well-being of affected communities is not sustainable politically. If an energy strategy lacks political longevity, it is not a viable plan but rather a potential crisis waiting to happen.

Tesla's vision was accurate, but the flawed political economy surrounding it led to setbacks. The failure at Wardenclyffe was not due to technological or resource limitations but rather the system's design that hindered abundance, which cannot be easily quantified, controlled, or monetized for a select few.

Nepal has an opportunity to establish a new system where its natural resources, such as rivers and sunlight, not only generate electricity but also foster independence from fossil fuel imports, reduce reliance on a single buyer, and eliminate the need to send its youth abroad due to economic limitations.

Nepal's future does not hinge on choosing between India and China but on prioritizing Nepal itself. This involves putting the country's interests first, as nations often prioritize national interests over moral principles.

This transformation begins with a domestic electrification revolution, followed by market diversification to enhance bargaining power. It deepens with federal revenue sharing that empowers communities as stakeholders rather than victims. A solar strategy that promotes distributed power, both literally and symbolically, among ordinary Nepalis will sustain this progress.

Although Morgan halted Tesla's funding, nature's forces like rain in the Himalayas and sunlight in the Terai cannot be controlled. The key question is whether Nepal will construct its own tower on its own terms this time. A nation unable to manage its rivers cannot shape its own destiny.

Pawan Bhatta is an Electrical Engineer at Nepal Electricity Authority, and a student of M.Sc. in Power System Engineering at IOE, Pulchowk Campus.

By Pawan Bhatta