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The government has once again denied any shortage of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), even as consumers across Kathmandu continue to queue with empty cylinders, exposing a widening gap between official supply statistics and the reality faced by households.

The Ministry of Industry, Commerce and Supplies, District Administration Office Kathmandu, Nepal Oil Corporation (NOC) and the Nepal LPG Gas Industry Association jointly claimed on Friday that LPG supply in the market is not only adequate but higher than normal. However, instead of acknowledging weaknesses in distribution and planning, government agencies and industry representatives largely attributed the disruption to consumers’ panic buying, stockpiling and a sudden surge in demand.

The government’s explanation has raised questions over whether consumers should be held responsible for a supply disruption triggered, at least in part, by a major change in the cylinder-distribution system.

From July 16, the authorities began replacing the half-filled 7.1-kilogram LPG cylinders with fully filled 14.2-kilogram cylinders. The government itself acknowledged that the transition created a sudden increase in demand and a “vacuum” in the market. Yet the official narrative has increasingly focused on consumers allegedly holding additional cylinders rather than on whether the transition was adequately planned and whether the distribution network was capable of handling it.

According to ministry data, 2,781 LPG bullet tankers were imported from India between July 16 and August 14. While an average of around 110,000 cylinders were previously distributed daily, the average distribution during the 28-day period reached around 132,000 cylinders per day - approximately 20 percent higher than the normal level.

The government also said 134 LPG bullets entered the country on August 12 alone, with more than 100 expected on Friday.

Despite these figures, consumers have been forced to spend hours searching for LPG, with many reporting difficulties obtaining cylinders even after reaching authorized or retail outlets. The contradiction between increased imports and continued retail-level shortages points toward a distribution and inventory-management problem that cannot be explained solely by consumer behavior.

Commerce Secretary Narayan Prasad Sharma Dawadi said the government remained fully aware of consumers’ rights guaranteed under Article 44 of the Constitution. He argued that the current situation should not be considered a crisis, claiming that the market disruption was caused by accumulated backlogs and fear-driven demand.

But that argument also raises a fundamental question: if the government knew there was a backlog and anticipated a substantial increase in demand after shifting consumers from half-filled to full cylinders, why was the distribution system not strengthened before the policy was implemented?

The government has now announced that it is moving toward a major reform of LPG distribution. Secretary Dawadi said separate pricing and cylinders would eventually be introduced for household and commercial users, while dealers and retailers would be formally standardized and certified.

“We are in the phase of fundamental reform of the LPG distribution system,” Dawadi said, adding that the existing retail network had become highly informal.

The statement effectively acknowledges one of the central weaknesses behind the current disruption: the distribution network remains largely informal and inadequately regulated.

Supply statistics do not automatically mean market availability

Nepal currently has 58 LPG bottling plants with a combined storage capacity of 10,166 tonnes and a stated daily filling capacity of 1.75 million cylinders.

The Nepal Oil Corporation has also claimed that it is bringing in 15 to 20 percent more LPG than under normal circumstances.

NOC Executive Director Nagendra Sah said supply had not stopped and that consumers were attempting to store additional cylinders because of uncertainty in the market.

“When 7.1 kilograms was suddenly changed to 14.2 kilograms, a vacuum was created in the market and it appeared as if there was chaos,” Sah said.

However, the government’s supply figures alone do not answer the most important question for consumers: why is gas not reaching households consistently if sufficient quantities are entering the country?

Imports at border points and distribution from bottling plants do not necessarily translate into availability at retail outlets. The last-mile distribution system, dealer inventories, retailer practices and regional allocation remain equally important.

The government’s own announcement that it plans to introduce QR-based tracking of cylinders suggests that authorities currently lack complete visibility over precisely where cylinders are moving through the distribution chain.

Government shifts responsibility to consumers

The repeated emphasis on consumer stockpiling risks shifting responsibility away from regulators.

There may indeed be cases of unnecessary hoarding. But panic buying is usually a symptom of uncertainty, not the fundamental cause of it. When consumers see long queues, empty outlets and inconsistent availability, the incentive to secure an additional cylinder naturally increases.

In such circumstances, simply telling consumers not to stockpile does little to restore confidence.

The more fundamental responsibility lies with the government and regulators to ensure that supply is predictable, distribution is transparent and consumers can obtain essential cooking fuel without spending hours in queues.

The Nepal LPG Gas Industry Association has denied allegations that industries are withholding LPG. Association President Diwan Chand said the sector was importing between 45,000 and 48,000 tonnes per month, compared with normal consumption of around 38,000 to 40,000 tonnes.

He said daily data on imports and distribution to dealers was being submitted to the administration.

Yet if authorities are receiving daily distribution data, another question arises: why has the government not been able to identify and immediately correct the specific points where LPG is failing to reach consumers?

Government seeks higher quota from India

The ministry has also requested India to increase Nepal’s LPG quota from the current monthly 49,500 tonnes to 60,000 tonnes for the next three months.

This indicates that the government itself expects demand pressures to remain elevated.

The request also exposes an apparent contradiction in the official position. On one hand, authorities insist there is no supply crisis and that the problem is largely consumer behavior. On the other, they are seeking a significant increase in imports to stabilize the market.

If demand has structurally increased following the transition to full cylinders, additional supply may be necessary. But simply increasing imports will not solve the problem if the distribution network remains fragmented and poorly monitored.

Threats of punishment come before systemic reform

Kathmandu Chief District Officer Ishwar Raj Poudel has warned that traders hiding LPG or forcing consumers to purchase rice or other products alongside gas will face criminal action.

The administration has also instructed retailers to keep LPG outlets open around the clock, promising security protection.

Authorities have inspected more than 50 depots and shops, according to the ministry.

The administration’s decision to crack down on black-market practices is necessary. But enforcement against individual retailers cannot substitute for effective regulation of the entire supply chain.

The government’s plan to distribute LPG directly through more than 15 open locations in Kathmandu - including Bhrikutimandap and Dasharath Stadium - if the private distribution network fails is particularly revealing.

Such a contingency plan effectively acknowledges that the existing distribution mechanism may not be capable of reliably handling the current situation.

QR tracking exposes the government’s earlier blind spot

The NOC is now developing software using GIS mapping and QR technology to track LPG cylinders from bottling plants to dealers and ultimately consumers.

Initially, manual inventory tracking will be introduced, followed by QR testing at three to four bottling plants before nationwide implementation.

The proposed system could significantly improve accountability. Once operational, the NOC command center is expected to be able to determine which industry supplied how much LPG to which dealer and whether the product subsequently reached consumers.

But the obvious question is why such a system was not established earlier.

LPG is an essential household commodity, and the government has long known the weaknesses of the country’s informal retail distribution network. The current crisis-like situation has merely exposed those weaknesses more visibly.

The real issue is not whether LPG exists, but whether consumers can obtain it

The government may be technically correct that Nepal is receiving substantial quantities of LPG. But for a household standing in a queue with an empty cylinder, the distinction between “no shortage” and “no access” is largely meaningless.

A functioning supply chain must be judged at the point of consumption - not merely at the border, storage depot or bottling plant.

The government therefore needs to move beyond repeatedly telling consumers not to panic and instead provide transparent, outlet-level information on inventories, allocations and distribution schedules.

If supply is genuinely sufficient, authorities should be able to demonstrate where the LPG is, which dealers received it, how much remains in their inventories and when consumers can obtain it.

The government’s latest response has been heavy on statistics, warnings and promises of future reforms. What consumers need, however, is immediate access to LPG.

Until that happens, blaming panic buying and consumer hoarding risks becoming an easy explanation for a problem that ultimately reflects weaknesses in government planning, distribution regulation, market monitoring and crisis management.

The LPG disruption is therefore not simply a story of consumers buying too much gas. It is a test of whether the state can guarantee reliable access to an essential commodity - and whether its regulatory machinery can identify a distribution failure before ordinary households are forced to line up on the streets.