China’s electric vehicle giant BYD is poised to surpass U.S.-based Tesla as the world’s largest seller of electric vehicles on a calendar-year basis for the first time, signaling a major realignment in the global EV market and underscoring China’s growing dominance in clean mobility manufacturing.

The milestone is expected to be confirmed on Friday when the two automakers publish their final sales figures for 2025. However, based on already disclosed data, industry analysts say it is now virtually certain that BYD has dethroned Tesla as the top global EV seller.

In a statement released on Thursday, BYD said sales of its battery-powered passenger vehicles surged by nearly 28 percent year-on-year to 2.26 million units in 2025. Tesla has yet to officially disclose its annual figures, but market expectations point to a significant shortfall compared to its Chinese rival.

Earlier this week, Tesla compiled an average analyst estimate indicating approximately 1.6 million vehicle deliveries in 2025, representing a decline of around 8 percent from 2024 levels. If confirmed, this would mark Tesla’s second consecutive year of declining annual deliveries, a sharp contrast to BYD’s accelerating growth trajectory.

Tesla reports “deliveries” rather than direct sales, which the company describes as its closest approximation of vehicles sold. However, the term is not precisely defined in Tesla’s shareholder communications, and minor discrepancies between deliveries and actual end-customer sales can occur. Even accounting for such variations, the gap between the two automakers appears decisive.

BYD’s rise represents a remarkable turnaround in the global EV landscape. In 2011, Tesla CEO Elon Musk publicly dismissed BYD during a Bloomberg interview, laughing off the quality and competitiveness of the Chinese company’s vehicles. Fourteen years later, BYD is on the verge of overtaking Tesla not only in volume but also in global influence.

Industry observers attribute BYD’s success to its vertically integrated manufacturing model, strong domestic market support in China, competitive pricing, and a broad product portfolio spanning entry-level to premium electric models. Unlike Tesla, BYD also benefits from in-house battery production, allowing it to better manage costs and supply-chain volatility.

Tesla, meanwhile, continues to face slowing demand growth in key markets, intensifying competition from Chinese and European automakers, and pressure to refresh its aging model lineup. While the company remains a leader in EV technology and brand recognition, its recent delivery declines have raised concerns among investors about medium-term growth prospects.

The anticipated shift in global EV leadership is widely seen as symbolic of broader structural changes in the automotive industry, where Chinese manufacturers are rapidly gaining scale, technological capability, and global market share.

If confirmed, BYD’s emergence as the world’s top EV seller would mark a historic moment not only for the company but also for China’s auto industry, reinforcing its position at the center of the global transition to electric mobility.